Akron Togliatti
CSKA Moscow
The model leans CSKA Moscow at 50%. Expected goals: Akron Togliatti 1.21, CSKA Moscow 2.00. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%. Akron Togliatti won 1 of their last 6; CSKA Moscow won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Akron Togliatti | 22% | 4.60 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.26 | – | – | – |
| 2CSKA Moscow | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: CSKA Moscow. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 2.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–36.5%
- 2–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CSKA Moscow −1| Akron Togliatti line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 14% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 22% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| +1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.