CSKA Moscow
Akron Togliatti
The model leans CSKA Moscow at 60%. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 2.44, Akron Togliatti 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%. CSKA Moscow won 2 of their last 6; Akron Togliatti won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1CSKA Moscow | 68% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Akron Togliatti | 13% | 7.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: CSKA Moscow. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.44 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–07.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CSKA Moscow −1.5| CSKA Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| -1 | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.