CSKA Moscow
Fakel
The model leans CSKA Moscow at 39%. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.20, Fakel 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. CSKA Moscow won 2 of their last 6; Fakel won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1CSKA Moscow | 42% | 2.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Fakel | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: CSKA Moscow. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.20 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–17.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CSKA Moscow −0.5| CSKA Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 30% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.