Fakel
FC Krasnodar
The model leans FC Krasnodar at 43%. Expected goals: Fakel 0.60, FC Krasnodar 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%. Fakel won 0 of their last 6; FC Krasnodar won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fakel | 19% | 5.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.89 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Krasnodar | 47% | 2.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Krasnodar. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.60 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–120.0%
- 0–017.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–010.8%
- 1–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Krasnodar −0.5| Fakel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 15% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 32% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.