FC Krasnodar
Fakel
The model leans FC Krasnodar at 51%. Expected goals: FC Krasnodar 1.36, Fakel 0.49. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. FC Krasnodar won 5 of their last 6; Fakel won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Krasnodar | 58% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Fakel | 12% | 8.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Krasnodar. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.36 – 0.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 1–021.3%
- 0–015.6%
- 2–014.5%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Krasnodar −1| FC Krasnodar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 29% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 11% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.