FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
The model leans FC Krasnodar at 62%. Expected goals: FC Krasnodar 1.81, FC Rostov 0.43. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 70%. FC Krasnodar won 5 of their last 6; FC Rostov won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Krasnodar | 70% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Rostov | 7% | 13.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Krasnodar. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 0.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.2%
- 2–017.4%
- 0–010.6%
- 3–010.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Krasnodar −1.5| FC Krasnodar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 21% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 7% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.