FC Rostov
Rubin Kazan
The model leans Draw at 39%. Expected goals: FC Rostov 0.60, Rubin Kazan 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 76%. FC Rostov won 2 of their last 6; Rubin Kazan won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Rostov | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 42% | 2.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Rubin Kazan | 32% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.60 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 85% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% |
| Both teams to score | Yes23% | No77% |
Most likely scores
- 0–026.9%
- 0–119.2%
- 1–016.1%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–04.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 70% · BTTS No 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Rostov 0| FC Rostov line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 20% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 40% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 24% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.