FC Rostov
CSKA Moscow
The model leans CSKA Moscow at 40%. Expected goals: FC Rostov 0.94, CSKA Moscow 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%. FC Rostov won 2 of their last 6; CSKA Moscow won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Rostov | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
| 2CSKA Moscow | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: CSKA Moscow. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–28.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CSKA Moscow −0.5| FC Rostov line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.