Rubin Kazan
Dynamo Makhachkala
The model leans Draw at 40%. Expected goals: Rubin Kazan 0.79, Dynamo Makhachkala 0.41. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 81%. Rubin Kazan won 1 of their last 6; Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rubin Kazan | 41% | 2.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Dynamo Makhachkala | 17% | 6.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 0.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 88% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 97% |
| Both teams to score | Yes18% | No82% |
Most likely scores
- 0–030.3%
- 1–023.8%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–13.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 71% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rubin Kazan −0.5| Rubin Kazan line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 28% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 41% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 14% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.