Predictions · Premier League · outside model coverage

Dinamo Moscow

31
Won

Dynamo Makhachkala

The model leans Dinamo Moscow at 54%. Expected goals: Dinamo Moscow 1.57, Dynamo Makhachkala 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Dinamo Moscow won 4 of their last 6; Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Dinamo Moscow62%1.62
XDraw27%3.72
2Dynamo Makhachkala11%8.76

Pick: Dinamo Moscow. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.54
LineOverUnder
1.562%38%
2.535%65%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes33%No67%

Most likely scores

  • 1019.2%
  • 2015.0%
  • 0012.2%
  • 1110.3%
  • 218.0%
  • 307.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Dinamo Moscow −1
Dinamo Moscow lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.534%66%
-134%28%37%
-0.563%37%
063%25%12%
+0.588%12%
+188%10%3%
+1.597%3%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.