Dinamo Moscow
Dynamo Makhachkala
The model leans Dinamo Moscow at 54%. Expected goals: Dinamo Moscow 1.57, Dynamo Makhachkala 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Dinamo Moscow won 4 of their last 6; Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dinamo Moscow | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| 2Dynamo Makhachkala | 11% | 8.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dinamo Moscow. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.2%
- 2–015.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 3–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dinamo Moscow −1| Dinamo Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 28% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 10% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.