Krylya Sovetov Samara
Dynamo Makhachkala
The model leans Krylya Sovetov Samara at 38%. Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov Samara 1.12, Dynamo Makhachkala 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 61%. Krylya Sovetov Samara won 1 of their last 6; Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Krylya Sovetov Samara | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Dynamo Makhachkala | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Krylya Sovetov Samara. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.2%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.8%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–17.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Krylya Sovetov Samara −0.5| Krylya Sovetov Samara line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 25% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.