Krylya Sovetov Samara
Zenit St. Petersburg
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 56%. Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.65, Zenit St. Petersburg 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Krylya Sovetov Samara won 1 of their last 6; Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Krylya Sovetov Samara | 12% | 8.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Zenit St. Petersburg | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.3%
- 0–214.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–38.5%
- 0–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −1| Krylya Sovetov Samara line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 9% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 22% | 65% |
| +0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| +1 | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.