Baltika
Krylya Sovetov Samara
The model leans Baltika at 51%. Expected goals: Baltika 1.57, Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.66. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. Baltika won 2 of their last 6; Krylya Sovetov Samara won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Baltika | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Krylya Sovetov Samara | 14% | 6.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Baltika. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 0.66| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.9%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Baltika −1| Baltika line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.