Baltika
Spartak Moscow
The model leans Baltika at 38%. Expected goals: Baltika 1.17, Spartak Moscow 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. Baltika won 2 of their last 6; Spartak Moscow won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Baltika | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Spartak Moscow | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
Pick: Baltika. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–111.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Baltika 0| Baltika line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.