Spartak Moscow
FC Krasnodar
The model leans FC Krasnodar at 44%. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 0.97, FC Krasnodar 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Spartak Moscow won 3 of their last 6; FC Krasnodar won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spartak Moscow | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Krasnodar | 48% | 2.09 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Krasnodar. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.97 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.8%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Krasnodar −0.5| Spartak Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.