FC Krasnodar
FK Akhmat
The model leans FC Krasnodar at 60%. Expected goals: FC Krasnodar 1.80, FK Akhmat 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 64%. FC Krasnodar won 5 of their last 6; FK Akhmat won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Krasnodar | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Akhmat | 10% | 10.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Krasnodar. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.4%
- 2–015.6%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Krasnodar −1| FC Krasnodar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 22% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.