FK Akhmat
Krylya Sovetov Samara
The model leans FK Akhmat at 44%. Expected goals: FK Akhmat 1.48, Krylya Sovetov Samara 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 50%. FK Akhmat won 2 of their last 6; Krylya Sovetov Samara won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Akhmat | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Krylya Sovetov Samara | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Akhmat. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.48 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–08.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Akhmat −0.5| FK Akhmat line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.