Fakel
FK Akhmat
The model leans Fakel at 38%. Expected goals: Fakel 1.00, FK Akhmat 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%. Fakel won 0 of their last 6; FK Akhmat won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fakel | 41% | 2.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.77 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Akhmat | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fakel. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.00 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.6%
- 0–018.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–16.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fakel −0.5| Fakel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.