Dynamo Makhachkala
FC Krasnodar
The model leans FC Krasnodar at 52%. Expected goals: Dynamo Makhachkala 0.44, FC Krasnodar 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6; FC Krasnodar won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dynamo Makhachkala | 11% | 9.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Krasnodar | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Krasnodar. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.44 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 0–122.6%
- 0–016.8%
- 0–215.2%
- 1–19.9%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–36.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Krasnodar −1| Dynamo Makhachkala line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 10% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 28% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.