Spartak Moscow
Zenit St. Petersburg
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 43%. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 0.87, Zenit St. Petersburg 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Spartak Moscow won 3 of their last 6; Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spartak Moscow | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Zenit St. Petersburg | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −0.5| Spartak Moscow line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.