Zenit St. Petersburg
Spartak Moscow
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 52%. Expected goals: Zenit St. Petersburg 1.65, Spartak Moscow 0.71. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%. Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6; Spartak Moscow won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zenit St. Petersburg | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Spartak Moscow | 15% | 6.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.5%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −1| Zenit St. Petersburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.