Zenit St. Petersburg
Rodina
The model leans Zenit St. Petersburg at 50%. Expected goals: Zenit St. Petersburg 1.39, Rodina 0.61. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%. Zenit St. Petersburg won 3 of their last 6; Rodina won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zenit St. Petersburg | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Rodina | 15% | 6.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zenit St. Petersburg. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 0.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.8%
- 0–013.5%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–18.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zenit St. Petersburg −0.5| Zenit St. Petersburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.