Rodina
FC Orenburg
The model leans Rodina at 54%. Expected goals: Rodina 1.65, FC Orenburg 0.60. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Rodina won 1 of their last 6; FC Orenburg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rodina | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.86 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Orenburg | 12% | 8.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rodina. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.5%
- 2–014.4%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–07.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rodina −1| Rodina line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 10% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.