Rubin Kazan
FC Orenburg
The model leans Rubin Kazan at 44%. Expected goals: Rubin Kazan 1.02, FC Orenburg 0.48. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 75%. Rubin Kazan won 1 of their last 6; FC Orenburg won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rubin Kazan | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Orenburg | 16% | 6.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Rubin Kazan. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 0.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 81% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes24% | No76% |
Most likely scores
- 1–022.8%
- 0–022.3%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rubin Kazan −0.5| Rubin Kazan line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 29% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 35% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 14% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.