Dynamo Makhachkala
Krylya Sovetov Samara
The model leans Dynamo Makhachkala at 29%. Expected goals: Dynamo Makhachkala 0.99, Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 61%. Dynamo Makhachkala won 1 of their last 6; Krylya Sovetov Samara won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dynamo Makhachkala | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.90 | – | – | – |
| 2Krylya Sovetov Samara | 31% | 3.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dynamo Makhachkala. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–014.9%
- 1–014.7%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 2–16.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dynamo Makhachkala 0| Dynamo Makhachkala line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.