Getafe
Celta Vigo
The model leans Draw at 31%. Expected goals: Getafe 0.87, Celta Vigo 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%. Getafe won 2 of their last 5; Celta Vigo won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Getafe | 31% | 3.18 | 2.45 | 39% | −7 |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.78 | 2.88 | 33% | +3 |
| 2Celta Vigo | 33% | 3.06 | 3.40 | 28% | +5 |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 31% (raw model output 36%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 0.90 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 0–017.1%20.0%
- 0–115.3%–
- 1–014.9%14.3%
- 1–113.3%18.2%
- 0–26.8%–
- 2–06.5%6.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Getafe 0| Getafe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 22% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 33% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Getafe -0.25 | 39% | 2.55 | 2.05 | 47% | −7 |
| Asian handicap | Celta Vigo +0.25 | 61% | 1.65 | 1.80 | 53% | +7 |
| Draw no bet | Getafe | 49% | 2.04 | 1.62 | 58% | −9 |
| Draw no bet | Celta Vigo | 51% | 1.96 | 2.20 | 42% | +9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.91 | 2.25 | 41% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 66% | 1.52 | 1.57 | 59% | +7 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.