Real Betis
Real Sociedad
The model leans Real Betis at 44%. Expected goals: Real Betis 1.86, Real Sociedad 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Real Betis won 3 of their last 6; Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Betis | 47% | 2.11 | 2.10 | 45% | +2 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.08 | 3.40 | 28% | −4 |
| 2Real Sociedad | 28% | 3.57 | 3.60 | 27% | +2 |
Pick: Real Betis. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Betis −0.5| Real Betis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.