Blackburn Rovers
Sheffield United
The model leans Blackburn Rovers at 30%. Expected goals: Blackburn Rovers 1.14, Sheffield United 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 52%. Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6; Sheffield United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Blackburn Rovers | 34% | 2.90 | 3.10 | 30% | +4 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | 3.40 | 28% | +4 |
| 2Sheffield United | 34% | 2.91 | 2.20 | 42% | −8 |
Pick: Blackburn Rovers. Calibrated probability 30% (raw model output 34%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.14 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–113.3%15.4%
- 1–011.6%10.0%
- 0–111.6%–
- 0–010.2%9.1%
- 2–17.6%9.1%
- 1–27.6%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Blackburn Rovers 0| Blackburn Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Blackburn Rovers +0.25 | 58% | 1.71 | 1.88 | 51% | +7 |
| Asian handicap | Sheffield United -0.25 | 42% | 2.40 | 1.98 | 49% | −7 |
| Draw no bet | Blackburn Rovers | 50% | 2.00 | 2.20 | 42% | +8 |
| Draw no bet | Sheffield United | 50% | 2.00 | 1.62 | 58% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 | 1.73 | 54% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 54% | 1.86 | 2.00 | 46% | +7 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.