Preston North End
Blackburn Rovers
The model leans Preston North End at 36%. Expected goals: Preston North End 1.02, Blackburn Rovers 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%. Preston North End won 0 of their last 6; Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Preston North End | 37% | 2.70 | 2.30 | 40% | −3 |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.89 | 3.25 | 29% | +6 |
| 2Blackburn Rovers | 28% | 3.52 | 3.00 | 31% | −3 |
Pick: Preston North End. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 71% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–015.6%10.0%
- 0–015.3%10.0%
- 1–113.4%16.7%
- 0–113.1%–
- 2–07.9%8.3%
- 2–16.8%9.1%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Preston North End 0| Preston North End line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Preston North End -0.25 | 46% | 2.19 | 2.10 | 46% | 0 |
| Asian handicap | Blackburn Rovers +0.25 | 54% | 1.84 | 1.78 | 54% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Preston North End | 57% | 1.77 | 1.67 | 56% | +1 |
| Draw no bet | Blackburn Rovers | 43% | 2.30 | 2.10 | 44% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.71 | 1.73 | 54% | −17 |
| Both teams to score | No | 63% | 1.58 | 2.00 | 46% | +17 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.