Millwall
Bolton Wanderers
The model leans Millwall at 42%. Expected goals: Millwall 1.52, Bolton Wanderers 1.10. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. Millwall won 3 of their last 6; Bolton Wanderers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Millwall | 46% | 2.18 | 1.91 | 49% | −3 |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.57 | 3.40 | 27% | +1 |
| 2Bolton Wanderers | 26% | 3.82 | 3.90 | 24% | +2 |
Pick: Millwall. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.52 – 1.10| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–112.2%15.4%
- 1–011.0%9.1%
- 2–19.3%7.7%
- 2–08.4%11.1%
- 0–18.0%–
- 0–07.2%10.5%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Millwall −0.5| Millwall line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Millwall -0.5 | 47% | 2.13 | 1.98 | 49% | −2 |
| Asian handicap | Bolton Wanderers +0.5 | 53% | 1.89 | 1.88 | 51% | +2 |
| Draw no bet | Millwall | 64% | 1.57 | 1.40 | 66% | −3 |
| Draw no bet | Bolton Wanderers | 36% | 2.75 | 2.75 | 34% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 | 1.83 | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 48% | 2.09 | 1.83 | 50% | −2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.