Wolverhampton Wanderers
Blackburn Rovers
The model leans Wolverhampton Wanderers at 50%. Expected goals: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.32, Blackburn Rovers 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%. Wolverhampton Wanderers won 5 of their last 6; Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wolverhampton Wanderers | 53% | 1.90 | 1.49 | 62% | −9 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | 3.90 | 24% | +8 |
| 2Blackburn Rovers | 16% | 6.13 | 6.25 | 15% | +2 |
Pick: Wolverhampton Wanderers. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 1–019.0%
- 0–014.5%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wolverhampton Wanderers −0.5| Wolverhampton Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 13% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.