SC Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
The model leans AZ Alkmaar at 37%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.69, AZ Alkmaar 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 68%. SC Heerenveen won 2 of their last 5; AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SC Heerenveen | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
- 1–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SC Heerenveen 0| SC Heerenveen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.