NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
The model leans NEC Nijmegen at 47%. Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.94, Excelsior 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. NEC Nijmegen won 2 of their last 6; Excelsior won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 50% | 1.98 | 1.44 | 65% | −14 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.15 | 4.50 | 21% | +3 |
| 2Excelsior | 25% | 3.93 | 6.25 | 15% | +11 |
Pick: NEC Nijmegen. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 50%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 1.34 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–19.8%10.5%
- 2–19.5%11.8%
- 1–07.4%10.0%
- 2–07.1%11.1%
- 1–26.6%–
- 2–26.3%6.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NEC Nijmegen −0.5| NEC Nijmegen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 22% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 22% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | NEC Nijmegen -1.25 | 33% | 3.02 | 1.93 | 49% | −16 |
| Asian handicap | Excelsior +1.25 | 67% | 1.50 | 1.88 | 51% | +16 |
| Draw no bet | NEC Nijmegen | 66% | 1.50 | 1.17 | 81% | −15 |
| Draw no bet | Excelsior | 34% | 2.98 | 5.00 | 19% | +15 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 | 1.62 | 58% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 37% | 2.71 | 2.20 | 42% | −5 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.