AZ Alkmaar
ADO Den Haag
The model leans AZ Alkmaar at 50%. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.01, ADO Den Haag 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%. AZ Alkmaar won 6 of their last 6; ADO Den Haag won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 51% | 1.94 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.26 | – | – | – |
| 2ADO Den Haag | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
Pick: AZ Alkmaar. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.01 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 1–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AZ Alkmaar −0.5| AZ Alkmaar line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 22% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.