FK Panevezys
FA Siauliai
The model leans FK Panevezys at 38%. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 1.54, FA Siauliai 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. FK Panevezys won 3 of their last 6; FA Siauliai won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Panevezys | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
| 2FA Siauliai | 32% | 3.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Panevezys. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK Panevezys 0| FK Panevezys line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.