Banga Gargzdai
FK Panevėžys
The model leans Banga Gargzdai at 50%. Expected goals: Banga Gargzdai 1.55, FK Panevėžys 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Banga Gargzdai won 2 of their last 6; FK Panevėžys won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Banga Gargzdai | 54% | 1.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Panevėžys | 18% | 5.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Banga Gargzdai. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.55 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.5%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Banga Gargzdai −0.5| Banga Gargzdai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.