Banga Gargzdai
FK Kauno Žalgiris
The model leans FK Kauno Žalgiris at 37%. Expected goals: Banga Gargzdai 0.92, FK Kauno Žalgiris 1.16. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%. Banga Gargzdai won 2 of their last 6; FK Kauno Žalgiris won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Banga Gargzdai | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
| 2FK Kauno Žalgiris | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK Kauno Žalgiris. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.4%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–27.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Banga Gargzdai 0| Banga Gargzdai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 24% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.