Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

Banga Gargzdai

03
Lost

Suduva

The model leans Banga Gargzdai at 32%. Expected goals: Banga Gargzdai 0.96, Suduva 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 64%. Banga Gargzdai won 2 of their last 6; Suduva won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Banga Gargzdai36%2.76
XDraw36%2.80
2Suduva28%3.56

Pick: Banga Gargzdai. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.96 – 0.81
LineOverUnder
1.553%47%
2.526%74%
3.510%90%
Both teams to scoreYes34%No66%

Most likely scores

  • 0016.9%
  • 1016.3%
  • 0113.8%
  • 1113.3%
  • 207.8%
  • 216.4%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 60% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Banga Gargzdai 0
Banga Gargzdai lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%24%62%
-0.538%62%
038%33%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%20%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.