FA Siauliai
Banga Gargzdai
The model leans Banga Gargzdai at 43%. Expected goals: FA Siauliai 0.83, Banga Gargzdai 1.32. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%. FA Siauliai won 1 of their last 6; Banga Gargzdai won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FA Siauliai | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | – | – | – |
| 2Banga Gargzdai | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Banga Gargzdai. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 1.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 36% | 64% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.4%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–011.7%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 57% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Banga Gargzdai −0.5| FA Siauliai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.