Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

FK TransINVEST

30
Won

FA Siauliai

The model leans FK TransINVEST at 55%. Expected goals: FK TransINVEST 2.23, FA Siauliai 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%. FK TransINVEST won 3 of their last 6; FA Siauliai won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FK TransINVEST64%1.57
XDraw21%4.76
2FA Siauliai15%6.48

Pick: FK TransINVEST. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.23 – 1.03
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 219.8%
  • 209.6%
  • 118.8%
  • 108.6%
  • 317.3%
  • 307.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FK TransINVEST −1
FK TransINVEST lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.541%59%
-141%23%36%
-0.564%36%
064%19%16%
+0.584%16%
+184%11%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.