Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

Zalgiris Vilnius

31
Lost

FK TransINVEST

The model leans FK TransINVEST at 36%. Expected goals: Zalgiris Vilnius 1.37, FK TransINVEST 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Zalgiris Vilnius won 4 of their last 6; FK TransINVEST won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Zalgiris Vilnius35%2.86
XDraw28%3.62
2FK TransINVEST37%2.67

Pick: FK TransINVEST. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.43
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.553%47%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.9%
  • 018.7%
  • 128.5%
  • 108.4%
  • 218.2%
  • 026.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Zalgiris Vilnius 0
Zalgiris Vilnius lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%20%64%
-0.536%64%
036%25%39%
+0.561%39%
+161%20%18%
+1.582%18%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.