Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

FK TransINVEST

10
Won

Dziugas Telsiai

The model leans FK TransINVEST at 50%. Expected goals: FK TransINVEST 1.89, Dziugas Telsiai 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. FK TransINVEST won 3 of their last 6; Dziugas Telsiai won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FK TransINVEST52%1.91
XDraw25%4.08
2Dziugas Telsiai23%4.34

Pick: FK TransINVEST. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.20
LineOverUnder
1.581%19%
2.560%40%
3.537%63%
Both teams to scoreYes59%No41%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.3%
  • 219.8%
  • 108.6%
  • 208.1%
  • 126.2%
  • 316.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FK TransINVEST −0.5
FK TransINVEST lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%23%47%
-0.553%47%
053%22%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%14%10%
+1.590%10%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.