Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

FK TransINVEST

02
Lost

FK Panevezys

The model leans FK TransINVEST at 55%. Expected goals: FK TransINVEST 2.33, FK Panevezys 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 61%. FK TransINVEST won 3 of their last 6; FK Panevezys won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FK TransINVEST64%1.57
XDraw20%4.93
2FK Panevezys16%6.33

Pick: FK TransINVEST. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.11
LineOverUnder
1.586%14%
2.567%33%
3.545%55%
Both teams to scoreYes60%No40%

Most likely scores

  • 219.7%
  • 208.7%
  • 118.3%
  • 317.5%
  • 107.5%
  • 306.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FK TransINVEST −1
FK TransINVEST lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.542%58%
-142%22%35%
-0.565%35%
065%19%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%11%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.