Hegelmann
FK TransINVEST
The model leans FK TransINVEST at 50%. Expected goals: Hegelmann 1.22, FK TransINVEST 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. Hegelmann won 1 of their last 6; FK TransINVEST won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hegelmann | 25% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2FK TransINVEST | 50% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: FK TransINVEST. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.5%
- 2–25.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FK TransINVEST −0.5| Hegelmann line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 23% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.