Hegelmann
Zalgiris Vilnius
The model leans Zalgiris Vilnius at 39%. Expected goals: Hegelmann 1.09, Zalgiris Vilnius 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Hegelmann won 1 of their last 6; Zalgiris Vilnius won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hegelmann | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Zalgiris Vilnius | 42% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Zalgiris Vilnius. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–08.4%
- 0–28.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zalgiris Vilnius −0.5| Hegelmann line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.