Zalgiris Vilnius
Banga Gargzdai
The model leans Draw at 29%. Expected goals: Zalgiris Vilnius 0.98, Banga Gargzdai 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 60%. Zalgiris Vilnius won 4 of their last 6; Banga Gargzdai won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zalgiris Vilnius | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Banga Gargzdai | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.98 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 87% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 0–014.5%
- 1–014.2%
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Zalgiris Vilnius 0| Zalgiris Vilnius line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 22% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 31% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.