FK Panevėžys
Žalgiris Vilnius
The model leans Žalgiris Vilnius at 44%. Expected goals: FK Panevėžys 1.11, Žalgiris Vilnius 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. FK Panevėžys won 3 of their last 6; Žalgiris Vilnius won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FK Panevėžys | 26% | 3.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Žalgiris Vilnius | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Žalgiris Vilnius. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Žalgiris Vilnius −0.5| FK Panevėžys line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.