Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

Suduva

20
Won

FK Panevezys

The model leans Suduva at 50%. Expected goals: Suduva 1.66, FK Panevezys 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%. Suduva won 5 of their last 6; FK Panevezys won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Suduva54%1.84
XDraw27%3.75
2FK Panevezys19%5.29

Pick: Suduva. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.66 – 0.89
LineOverUnder
1.572%28%
2.547%53%
3.525%75%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.0%
  • 1111.5%
  • 2010.8%
  • 219.6%
  • 007.8%
  • 016.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Suduva −0.5
Suduva lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.530%70%
-130%25%44%
-0.556%44%
056%24%20%
+0.580%20%
+180%14%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.