Predictions · A Lyga · outside model coverage

FK Panevezys

12
Won

Suduva

The model leans Suduva at 43%. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 1.00, Suduva 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 50%. FK Panevezys won 3 of their last 6; Suduva won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FK Panevezys24%4.10
XDraw29%3.48
2Suduva47%2.13

Pick: Suduva. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.00 – 1.48
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.545%55%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.4%
  • 0112.4%
  • 129.2%
  • 029.1%
  • 108.4%
  • 008.4%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Suduva −0.5
FK Panevezys lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.59%91%
-19%16%74%
-0.526%74%
026%26%48%
+0.552%48%
+152%24%24%
+1.576%24%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.