FA Šiauliai
Sūduva
The model leans Sūduva at 43%. Expected goals: FA Šiauliai 0.93, Sūduva 1.41. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. FA Šiauliai won 1 of their last 6; Sūduva won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FA Šiauliai | 24% | 4.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Sūduva | 47% | 2.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sūduva. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 1.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.6%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sūduva −0.5| FA Šiauliai line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.